About Me

Wednesday, April 8, 2009

Hi, my name is Joe Collector

and I hate Prospect sets.

Ever since the days of Impel, pro cards, etc, I have hated these sets. Don't confuse my hatred of Prospect sets with those of minor league team sets that are given away at games. These are often the closest things that fans have to hometown heroes. I am talking about the sets that are currently produced by Razor and Tristar and to a lessor extent the Bowman Prospect sets.

Here is why: Who the Hell are these guys. Nothing like throwing down serious cash on a Box of Razor or Tristar and coming up with absolutely no one that you recognize. Out of a set of 100 or so, maybe 4-7 if you are lucky will go on to a long career. Sometimes more I suppose. At least with '52 Rookies and Bowman, you get some guys that have been to the bigs, but with the prospect sets you get crap.

Now you might recognize some names of these guys because the names are thrown around everywhere these days. For some perspective, think of the 80's. I could do this for the 70's too.

Big name players: 1980: Rickey
1981: Tim Raines, Fernando, Kirk Gibson, Harold Baines
1982: Ripken
1983: Sandberg, Boggs, and Gwynn
1984: Mattingly, Strawberry, Puckett, Clemens, maybe Gooden
1985: Ironically out of the USA set McGwire
1986: Canseco, Bonds, Bo
1987: Maddux
1988: Glavine, Grace, Biggio, Smoltz
1989: Randy Johnson, Griffey, Sheffield
1990: Big Hurt, Sosa

There are some other good rookies in those years, but not even the ones above have particularly valuable cards. Sure, they are known, but prospectors are out for big dollar cards. If there are 100 cards in a set and even 10 go on to a big career, your success rate is 10%. Go buy a lottery ticket. Your payoff on 75 powerball tickets will probably be bigger.

Another way to think of it is, say you bought a ton 2001 Bowman chrome boxes at 100 a box. What were your chances of pulling a Pujeoloso or a Reyes auto? Same with the prospect sets now. What are your chances of pulling the auto card of the player that makes it?

11 comments:

night owl said...

I hate these sets, too. But I don't have an ounce of prospector blood in me, so I guess I'm not supposed to like them.

beardy said...

all i got to say is word booty.

Welden Waverspy said...

These sets may not be practical to bust a ton of wax over, but they are perfect for doing some research and trying to figure out which under the radar guys are going to make it.

Also, if you bought a ton of 2001 Bowman Chrome at 100 a box, then you shouldn't even think about busting it. Just sell it at 300+ a box and let some other schumck bust it. That's about a 9% per yer return. I'd take that in a heartbeat today.

stusigpi said...

I meant that even if you got the 2001 Bowman Chrome for $100 and busted it to get the prospects and rookies out of it.

How do sets like these enable you to do some research and help you figure out which under the radar guys are going to make it?

Motherscratcher said...

Hmmmmm...Razor or Keith Law. Who should I listen to?

This is That Was Great said...

No one will ever make their money back on your A&G Jersey card of the guy who has the highest Donkey Kong score either, it pains me to see case after case of modern cards busted and nothing to show for it, might as well take a grand and flush it, or buy an 84 IROC Z Camaro. Seriously 800 bucks for two silks of note and one kinda decent auto, I'm glad Ebay's around so I can say screw the hobby boxes, let the money burners keep 'em. I'll skip the crackers jacks and go straght to the prize.

stusigpi said...

That's the difference between a propector and a collector. I am a collector and so I am not trying to make my money back. Anyone that busts this stuff to make money is a fool.

I buy singles all the time when I can't get boxes for a decent price. For me its worth the money for the chance to get something good as long as I can get a decent selection of cards out of the case, no big deal. Wasting money on cards is better than wasting it on going out to dinner every night.

The sad thing is that I paid $670 or so shipped for the case, whereas a lot of these cases have sold for $800+

Oh Yeah, he wasn't the high scorer at Donkey Kong,he is an Ultra Marathon guy. SO THERE!

This is That Was Great said...

Sorry I didn't mean to go off on ya, bad day, easy target. I really do enjoy seeing boxes busted, and I regret being so negative. As long as you got a good deal on the case, than I cannot find fault, $670's a very good deal for the sheer amount of cards you get. $800 is what I though you paid, and that made me sad.

stusigpi said...

No worries. It pisses me off to when I see people busting cases of heritage and not even getting a set. Those guys on collectors universe were happily paying 80 a box, getting a shitty hit and no help For their Sets and then going on and on about How great it is.

Rest assured that I never pay "the going rate" for wax. I may pay a price that ends up being more than if I would have waited six months, but rarely.

The Mojo Hand said...

I like to make subsets. For example 2008 Stadium Club First day issue R.C only 50 cards.

stusigpi said...

That's cool, at least they are actual rookies and not some dude that has as many MLB at bats as I do.