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Tuesday, July 28, 2009

Maybe Upper Deck should have left 2009/10 Draft as cancelled

Check out this case break.

A couple of boxes here.

Talk about really shitty breaks. Wouldn't surprise me if this guy didn't get half his money back on that case.

Upper Deck has really been pushing the envelope lately with crappy products that cost way too much for what you get. In all fairness this is a draft product so you expect a lot of no names, but if you don't get a Lebron, Jordan, Kobe, or Blake Griffin you aren't getting much if anything.

Consider some of the other Products: Black (all of them), Football Signature (soon to be released), Premier, and Ultimate Collection. $100+ a pack, one or two hits, $200+ for Black, and you get about half that on a good day. That Derrick Rose auto didn't even get those boxes back for him. How many case breaks of Black have you seen where something was pulled that really did well. I'm not saying the cards aren't out there, but good lord that case of Draft stunk up the joint. Let us not forget this. Also look at this break, yup the guy pulled a Jordan in Box 4 pack 2, but what about those other 3 boxes? Those are some shitty cards for $220 a box. Say that Jordan goes for $1000 - $1500 notice the one $999 BIN, he has $880 into those 4 boxes. Lucky he pulled it. What if would have been a simple jordan or Lebron auto? Plus, you know that was the case hit. Even with a pull like that you are still down for the case.

Exquisite is a push in my opinion, box for box there is some good stuff if not for sale on ebay there are some cool cards. However this other stuff often yields things that would be better served being placed into a bargain bin. Look at some of those breaks. With very few exceptions none of that stuff would find its way into my collection. Too generic looking. Heck 07/08 Fleer Ultra Basketball at $35 is a much better break.

Some would say that I am being too harsh because everyone knows you don't get back what you put into a case. My answer to that is that many people buy this stuff to flip. There should be no scrub autos in this high end stuff. Heck, half the time you can buy a box of SP authentic for less and end up with 3 hits, one of them pretty good, whereas, some of these breaks are pure shit or names that you may know but there is no demand for.

I am working on a comparison of extremely high end to a high-mid product. In my opinion the high-mid crushes the high end hands down. By the way, 2009 Topps Football looks pretty good this year. I am questioning whether Topps has inadvertently pushed chrome out of the market. Those Jumbos with 1-2 autos and a manu letter are much more appealing to me than 1 crap auto and some refractors. Finest still has a place but there is no need for anything in between. I realize Chrome is wildly popular, not with me mind you.

One last note on these. The condition that these cards come out of the pack is absolutely unacceptable. Look at some of those scans, especially the Ultimate Foursomes card in that "shitty breaks" link. I know that Steve from The sports card file rages everytime someone mentions something outlandish like putting the big hits in cases as too expensive, but good god, at $100 for a couple of cards we deserve something. Maybe that's the problem, as an industry insider these individuals have their own biases and don't listen to the customer. Maybe that is why their sales are sitting around $250 million and not $2 billion. On that topic, Rob from Voice of the Collector commented to them that he hated all the scrub autos and that he didn't understand why undrafted free agents make it into these products. Scooby and Steve basically tried to make Rob feel like an idiot for suggesting that these guys should not be in the product because these products were planned out months in advance. To that I say fuck you. There was no way that 90% of those free agent undrafted guys could have been in anyone's mock draft. If so they were in very late rounds and shouldn't have been considered for the product. I would rather have 1/2 to 2/3's the hit rate if the autos were better quality. No defensive guy except for maybe a LB, CB or Safety should be included if they are past the first round maybe mid second. OL and DL should not be considered unless they are top 16.

For example, everyone knew Crabtree, Stafford, Sanchez, and those guys were going to be top picks. I wouldn't even mind the errant WR, QB, or RB, but a checklist of 100 rookies is 50 too many, an auto checklist of more than the first round is too many. Wait until mid way through the season, it will be clear by then which guys are going to make it and which ones won't. Heck a lot of these products aren't even released until after the season. /rant

Outside of a pure draft product the following is how I would have stacked the auto checklist. Everyone in the first 2 rounds gets a card in the set. Y for yes n for no. I would probably do redemptions perhaps 10 for standout rookies and second years after I evaluate after week 4 or 6. Seems a 10 card set would be very easy to put together. Maybe not with the eleventy billion products each company puts out each year.

y 1 Lions Matthew Stafford QB
n 2 Rams Jason Smith OT
y 3 Chiefs Tyson Jackson DE
n 4 Seahawks Aaron Curry OLB
y 5 Jets Mark Sanchez QB
n 6 Bengals Andre Smith OT
y 7 Raiders Darrius Heyward-Bey WR
n 8 Jaguars Eugene Monroe OT
n 9 Packers B.J. Raji DT
y10 49ers Michael Crabtree WR
y 11 Bills Aaron Maybin DE
y 12 Broncos Knowshon Moreno RB
n 13 Redskins Brian Orakpo DE
y 14 Saints Malcolm Jenkins CB
n 15 Texans Brian Cushing OLB
y 16 Chargers Larry English DE
y 17 Buccaneers Josh Freeman QB
y 18 Broncos Robert Ayers LB
y 19 Eagles Jeremy Maclin WR
n 20 Lions Brandon Pettigrew TE
n 21 Browns Alex Mack C
y 22 Vikings Percy Harvin WR
n 23 Ravens Michael Oher OT
n 24 Falcons Peria Jerry DT
y 25 Dolphins Vontae Davis CB
y 26 Packers Clay Matthews OLB
y 27 Colts Donald Brown RB
n 28 Bills Eric Wood C
y 29 Giants Hakeem Nicks WR
y 30 Titans Kenny Britt WR
y 31 Cardinals Chris Wells RB
y 32 Steelers Evander Hood DT

n 1 Detroit Louis Delmas S
y 2 New England Patrick Chung DB
y 3 St. Louis James Laurinaitis LB
n 4 Cleveland Brian Robiskie WR
n 5 Denver Alphonso Smith CB
y 6 Cincinnati Rey Maualuga LB
n 7 Jacksonville Eben Britton T
n 8 New England Ron Brace DT
n 9 New England Darius Butler CB
n 10 Buffalo Jairus Byrd CB
n 11 Carolina Everette Brown DE
y 12 Miami Pat White QB
y 13 NY Giants Clint Sintim LB
n 14 Houston Connor Barwin DE
n 15 Oakland Michael Mitchell S
n 16 Denver Darcel McBath S
y 17 Seattle Max Unger T
y 18 Cleveland Mohamed Massaquoi WR
n 19 Buffalo Andy Levitre OL
n 20 Cleveland David Veikune DL
n 21 Philadelphia LeSean McCoy RB
n 22 Minnesota Phil Loadholt OL
n 23 Atlanta William Moore S
y 24 Indianapolis Fili Moala DT
n 25 Baltimore Paul Kruger DE
n 26 New England Sebastian Vollmer OL
y 27 Carolina Sherrod Martin DB
n 28 NY Giants Will Beatty T
n 29 Miami Sean Smith DB
n 30 Tennessee Sen'Derrick Marks DE
n 31 Arizona Cody Brown DE
y 32 Denver Richard Quinn

Round 3

y 1 (65) Jets (From Lions) Greene, Shonn RB
n 2 (66) Rams Fletcher, Bradley DB
n 3 (67) Chiefs Magee, Alex DT
n 4 (68) Bears (From Seahawks) Gilbert, Jarron DE
n 5 (69) Cowboys (From Browns) Williams, Jason OLB
n 6 (70) Bengals Johnson, Michael DE
n 7 (71) Raiders Shaughnessy, Matt DE
n 8 (72) Jaguars Knighton, Terrance DT
n 9 (73) Jaguars (From Packers through Patriots) Cox, Derek CB
y 10 (74) 49ers Coffee, Glen RB
n 11 (75) Cowboys (From Bills) Brewster, Robert OT
n 12 (76) Lions (From Saints through Jets) Levy, DeAndre OLB
n 13 (77) Texans Caldwell, Antoine OG
n 14 (78) Chargers Vasquez, Louis OG
n 15 (79) Steelers (From Broncos) Urbik, Kraig
n 16 (80) Redskins Barnes, Kevin CB 6'0"
n 17 (81) Buccaneers Miller, Roy DT
y 18 (82) Lions (From Cowboys) Williams, Derrick WR
y 19 (83) Patriots (From Jets through Packers) Tate, Brandon WR
y 20 (84) Steelers (From Bears through Broncos) Wallace, Mike WR
y 21 (85) Giants (From Eagles) Barden, Ramses WR
n 22 (86) Vikings Allen, Asher CB
y 23 (87) Dolphins Turner, Patrick WR
n 24 (88) Ravens Webb, Lardarius CB
n 25 (89) Titans (From Patriots) Cook, Jared TE
n 26 (90) Falcons Owens, Christopher CB
y 27 (91) Seahawks (From Giants through Eagles) Butler, Deon WR
n 28 (92) Colts Powers, Jerraud CB
n 29 (93) Panthers Irvin, Corvey DL \
n 30 (94) Titans Mouton, Ryan CB
n 31 (95) Cardinals Johnson, Rashad S
n 32 (96) Steelers Lewis, Keenan CB 6'0"
n 33 (97) Patriots (Compensatory selection) McKenzie, Tyrone OLB
n 34 (98) Bengals (Compensatory selection) Coffman, Chase TE
y 35 (99) Bears (Compensatory selection) Iglesias, Juaquin WR
n 36 (100) Giants (Compensatory selection) Beckum, Travis TE


Box Opener said...

The guy from the shitty ultimate break didn't buy a case. He bought 12 out of the 15 boxes from my local card shop and I bought the other 3 boxes. Here's my break:


His break was definitely shitty but that's the nature of breaking wax (like playing a slot machine really). After seeing his shitty break the card shop owner offered to give him the three remaining boxes at far below wholesale cost to make up for it. But he refused and I scooped them up at a decent price. I pulled the Rose Epic Signatures auto in the first box out of the three, and should have stopped there and sold back the two unopened ones to the owner. But I like breaking wax, and if I decide to sell the Rose will at the very least break even on the three boxes. Breaking new wax is like going to the casino, upside is low, but people do it anyway.

stusigpi said...

Thanks for the back story. I didn't realize it was you that got the other three boxes. My opinion still stands though. You can drop $500-$1000 on upper decks high end and come away with absolute crap. There are 10 boxes in that car that aren't worth $30. We all know that we are taking a
chance with wax, especially the higher you go up the chain, but there has to be some value. The case hit is your only hope. As to the value, you all know I could care less about actual resale price of my cards, but there are limits an you know when you got jobbed.

Speaking of resale, update on the card shop coming soon.

grant said...

Just a ? Butler Yes but Curry 1st round no? What's up with that? Curry looks to be a really promising if not dominating player? (even if he's defense) Just curious becuase I was gonna try nd get some curry Auto's, Grant

stusigpi said...

Curry is not going to dominate right away if ever. I see griffin and hansb. As the top two impact guys. Pick up curry as the year goes on and people start to lose interest. Right now curry is high and you would be buying at the top, even if he does well buying now would still not be a bargain.

Listen, look at the last 10 years. This NBA and NFL drafts are week. Think 2005 NFL and 99-00 NBA. These cards have topped out, at least the ones we can afford. There just isn't much upside to be had right now.