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Saturday, November 14, 2009

Why spotting fakes is a tough business and some notes

Don't forget the monthly box breaks. December signups are open and getting closer and closer.

Let me start by saying that I have no idea whether this card is fake or not. Because this is all event worn, it is possible and most likely real. The odd thing about the card is that it is /25 and has a shield on it. The card companies now know the significance of those cards, but knowing that they take the event worn to new levels. Not sure how many jerseys these guys toss off and on during an event, but if I were Panini it would be in the triple digits for the big stars.

Now to the auction, a jay cutler/manning with a shield. One would react as I did with suspicion. Then, as I always do in these cases, I looked at the guys other auctions. I was expecting to find the normal fake rookie premier topps autos, and other outrageous patches. I did not. He has a bunch of nice cards.

As more and more fakes from 2001-present find there way into the hobby, they will lose their significance. Either people will stay away from paying a ton of money for fakes or sick nasty mojo funk patches, regardless of whether they are real or not; or patches will loose their significance period. At first the two options I gave look the same, but they are not. Right now there are people that only collect logos and 3-4 color patches. If these people stop buying the questionable patches the price will drop. They haven't lost interest, just don't know what to buy and thus won't. Then you have people like me. I like 2-3 color patches, if I happen to get a logo for cheap, that's fine, but I don't care. Now that there are so many 2,3,4 color and logos out there, the supply is higher thus the premium is low if any for a 4 color or logo over a nice 2-3 color. The fakes are making the 3,4 and logos less desirable due to them being less rare rather than people consciously staying away from them.

I got a hit on my blog in the last two days where the search term was "how to make a fake patch". Not sure what the person was looking for. Whether they were trying to spot them learn how to make them. It is quite simple to do. The key is to buy an "authentic" jersey of some type. Sure it costs a lot, but there are tons of "patches" to be had. Plus the stitching will be correct. No need to do logos either. Taking a 1 color to a 3 color can increase your take quite a bit. But good god, are you really that pathetic? Why don't you hide in the bushes and try to get little kids into your van with candy or beat little kids up and take their lunch money. Its not like I wrote anything above that these losers don't already know. Are these the same guys that show up to target at opening to molest packs?

Speaking of pack searching. There are a bunch of these guys on the blow out boards. "Big walmart mojo" that starts out with "I bought 5 packs and got these 5 hits". Liars! Either they bought a bunch of packs or they played red rocket with the gravity feed box in the card aisle. What's worse is when they obviously did this at a shop with the hobby boxes. Nothing like dropping $10 a pack with no shot of a decent hit like the shop in my hood. MMMM! $40 for 20 base cards.

Personal box breaks. I commented before that I was in singles buying mode lately, which I have been. I have been a masterpiece* parallel buying fool. Fool being the operative word. One of the reasons I did that is because I have been in the middle of a job change. I am going into private practice and I couldn't do that without quitting my state job. There is an ethical rule for lawyers that you can't seek employment from someone you are litigating against. In my job with the Department of Justice, I was litigating against every firm it seemed like. I would see a good job posted and then realize I had a case with them. In a small legal market like the one I live in, that's just the way it goes. I didn't know how long it was going to take so I stopped spending $1200+ a month on wax just in case. I start my new job December 1st. Case breaks you should expect to see:

2009 Philadelphia. This stuff is cheap. Just like I like. On card with some nice hits to be had.

2009 Topps Mayo. Even though its sticker, I really like these cards. When cases hit $550, and they will, you will see me break it.

2009 Topps Finest. Nice cards this year. I agree with Gellman the patches are lame and the autos on the letters are horrible. Can't even read most of them but I like finest as a break.

Sp authentic football. I'm going to start at 2005 or so and bust a case a month up through 2009. By far the best "value" and quality balance amongst football products.

Topps Chrome - Bowman Chrome Baseball and Football 2004-present. Very inexpensive for what you get.

Topps Jumbo boxes - Try and pull some rookie premier autos.

As a general rule, Panini products are out for me. Sticker autos that will fall off in a few years? No thanks. I may pick up some basketball, but I would rather bust cases of Murad, and high end UD products.

Breaks will probably start in January.


RWH said...

I've missed being able to live vicariously through your case breaks, so I'm anxious for them to make a comeback.

Voluntarheel said...

I love the idea of SP Authentic cases starting at 05. If doing a group for those, I would be in each month.

stusigpi said...

I would probably do these as personal breaks because I don't have any of those cards in my collection.